In Ligue 1, the champions were known before the season started: PSG.
What wasn’t known (but has been revealed) is that Lille and Brest will have such good seasons that they will – most likely – grab Champions League places.
Unless, of course, Monaco (currently better placed than Lille, but coming in on a wave of enthusiasm and J. David’s momentum form) oppose them.
Nice and Lens also have a good chance of playing in the European Cups next year.
Clermont look doomed to relegation, Metz are hanging on by a thread (they played desperately against Brest and were one step away from a big surprise). Both have objectively very little chance of being in the Ligue 1 next season. Nantes, Lorient and Le Havre, on the other hand, will fight – and it will be a tough fight – for the play-off places. Lorient’s chances of staying in the top flight are the slimmest.
Montpellier, Strasbourg and Toulouse seem to have escaped the danger zone.
Each European top flight obviously has its own specificities. In England far more matches end with at least three goals scored than in France. It’s an observation from which a strategy can start.
At the same time, in France – if you watch the games live – you will see that in games where three goals are scored, two or three more (at least) are scored. Brest v Metz, 4-3, in the last round is just one example. Metz-Monaco (2-5) or Montpellier-PSG (2-6) are other handy examples, but the list is – of course – longer.
That’s for a reason I’ve mentioned here before: the youth of Ligue 1’s stars. Youth means momentum, but it also means possible mismanagement of resources or misjudgement of their own strengths. And it also means sudden (sometimes inexplicable) collapses in matches.
If you look carefully at the matches and relate this observation to the reality on the pitch you will see that, after all, in Ligue 1 the teams that are more balanced (in terms of age, the proportion of young players in each section, etc.) climb the table.
The results are public: artificial intelligence is giving better results this season in La Liga, Premier League and Serie A than in Ligue 1. This is precisely because Ligue 1 matches tend to get destabilized most easily by mental collapses, red cards etc.
But that doesn’t mean AI predictions aren’t a solid base to work from. It does mean something else: that in Ligue 1, much more than in other leagues, you need to pay attention to the live feeds and “feel” the flow of matches. And that’s a beautiful thing.
